Sam vs Football

Over the last month or so, a friend has asked me for football advice and tips so that he can pass it off as his own knowledge to his workmates, despite himself admitting to knowing very little about the sport. Cue incredulous hilarity (probably) in his office, which turns into a respectful awe (maybe) on Monday morning when a lot of the predictions pay off and - in the case of his bet-obsessed colleague - pay out.

I'm happy to oblige, as I have a lot to say about football but nowhere to say it, aside from to whoever I'm with whenever I watch a match down the pub. I'm happy to throw my hands up and admit I was wrong when it happens, but I thought it'd be interesting to see how often I was right, so I dug out my last few  emails to my friend and you can see the results yourself...

4 October: Sam 3 - 0 Football

Q:

• Do we think Arsenal will win thes weekend?
• Man City vs Sunderland; is it worth having Tevez in your FF squad?
• Thoughts on having Torres in the squad?

 A:

Memorise this, and prepare to stun your colleagues…

On paper, Arsenal *should* win this weekend against a newly promoted West Ham. However, their manager Sam Allardyce sets his team up to keep a clean sheet first and foremost, and then if they score, all the better. So although I do think Arsenal will win, it will be a tight game, and I wouldn’t be surprised if West Ham got a draw out of it… it’s not a dead-cert, at any rate. West Ham 1 - 3 Arsenal (win)

City have such strength in depth that having any of their players in your fantasy football team is a risk. However, Tevez was the only one of their four strikers not to feature in last night’s Champions League match, meaning that he is in pole position to start on Saturday lunchtime’s kick-off versus Sunderland. He’s also one of the leading candidates to take free kicks and penalties regardless who else is on the pitch, which gives him greater chances to score points, and finally, he and fellow Argentian Sergio Aguero (Maradona’s son-in-law) are manager Roberto Mancini’s favoured front pairing, so are least susceptible to rotation. Conclusion: yes, especially with City’s run of easy fixtures approaching, it’s worth having him in your FF team (he is indeed in mine). Man City 3-0 Sunderland, Tevez got an assist, then got an assist and a goal respectively in the following two games ( win)

Torres is a trickier option. On paper, yes, he ought to be in everyone’s squad: he is the *only* recognised striker in a Chelsea team that has a plethora of attacking midfield options to assist him to score goals. It should be a no-brainer – however, out of frustration after he didn’t score for weeks on end, I took him out of my team for the first time this season before last weekend – where he promptly scored and assisted against Arsenal. This weekend’s trip to Norwich aside, Chelsea face some tough games including Spurs away and Man Utd at home. Once the fixtures ease up a bit, it’s worth getting him in (again, I plan to bring him back in a month or so). For the short term, however, there are better options: van Persie (Man Utd) and Jelavic for Everton can’t stop scoring when they play. Torres scored and won an assist against Norwich, but has failed to score or assist in the five league games since (win)

 

26 October: Sam 5 - 2 Football

Q: 

• Newcastle vs West Brom do I keep Demba Ba in>
• Reading vs Fulham?
• Aston Villa vs Norwich?
• Do I put Sergio Guerro in my team because Man City are playing Swansea City?
• Cardif City vs Burnley?
• Middlesboro vs Bolton? Bolton have a new manager
• Leicester vs Crystal Palace?

A:

*Obviously* that’s who he is! He left Crystal Palace, so I’d back Leicester in that one – they’re backed by money, the Man City of the Championship if you will, so should win on paper regardless. – Crystal Palace won, 2-1 (lose)

Definitely keep Demba Ba in for Newcastle vs WBA– he’s on form and has a good run of opponents. – Demba Ba scored (win)

Sergio “Kun” Aguero is a difficult one… he started the midweek match, and is susceptible for rotation. I’m going to go out on a limb and say no, but I could end up with egg on my face. I’m backing Tevez to start that game, and to prosper. – Tevez scored, Aguero didn’t. (win)

The rest are actually quite tricky to call…

Reading vs Fulham – the latter aren’t great away from home, but the former aren’t great anywhere… could easily be a bore draw. If I had to choose a winner, I’d say Fulham to edge it though, but think a draw is more likely. – draw, 3-3 (win)

Villa-Norwich – two teams who are performing badly, despite Norwich’s surprise win against Arsenal last week. Should be Villa’s game to win, but again it could easily be a draw. Verdict: Villa (just). – draw, 1-1 (lose)

Cardiff City vs Burnley – I’d back Cardiff here, Burnley are good but have recently lost their manager (who went back to Bournemouth – woohoo!). – Cardiff won 4-0 (win)

Finally, Middlesborough vs Bolton. Tough to call, both former stalwarts of the Premier League who have fallen on harder times and are now languishing in the second flight… at a push, I’d say Middlesborough to win (but again, could easily be a draw). – Middlesborough won, 2-1 (win)

16 November: Sam 3 - 2 Football

A brief summary: Everton to beat Reading Reading won, 2-1 (lose), QPR to pick up a first win of the season against Southampton, causing the latter's manager to get the sack soon after Southampton won, 2-1 (lose), but the losing team's manager *did* get sacked (win), Gareth Bale to score against Arsenal (win) and Suarez to continue to scoring spree against Wigan (win).


23 November: Sam 2 - 2 Football

Start by stating the obvious – since QPR sacked Mark Hughes today, and they’ll be managerless tomorrow against Man Utd, coupled with Utd’s shock loss to Norwich last weekend, due to which they’ll have an extra incentive to attack, then it’s a no-brainer to back United (in particular, Robin van Persie, especially now that Rooney’s back from injury to help him out, so van Persie is an obvious fantasy football captain candidate). Man Utd 3 - 1 QPR (win)

Elsewhere, it’s not so easy to predict. Luis Suarez is a decent bet to carry on where he left off – he’s scored five goals in his last four league games (indeed, eight in his last seven), and Swansea’s attacking philosophy leaves them vulnerable to counter-attacks, something which Liverpool can exploit. (lose)

Everton should get their first clean sheet in seven league games against Norwich, despite the suspension of afro-haired Fellaini. So Leighton Baines is their key man, also being on penalties and free kicks, he’s got a chance to pick up some attacking points to supplement the potential clean sheet. (lose)

As for the big match of the weekend, Man City vs Chelsea, I personally don’t think it’s going to be high-scoring. When a big match is also a local derby, you get teams wanting to attack and be more aggressive, as there’s more at stake to lose than just points (ie, pride, bragging rights). See Arsenal 5-2 Spurs, for example, or Liverpool 2-2 Everton. But when it’s two big teams with half the country separating them, then you see more of a cautious approach, almost paying too much respect to the other team.

The added caveat here is that Chelsea sacked their manager, Roberto Di Matteo, in the week, and replaced him yesterday with Rafa Benitez, the former Liverpool manager. History dictates that teams with a new manager are notoriously difficult to play against immediately after a managerial change, with the players trying to impress their new boss and fight for a place in the first team.

Neither team are in form, here, so I’d hazard (you can make a pun here, as one of Chelsea’s players is called Eden Hazard)a guess at a low-score draw, possibly 1-1. Low-, or no-score draw, at 0-0 (win)

7 December: Sam 2 - 1 Football

This approaching weekend marks the start of a “double gameweek” for two teams -- Reading and Sunderland – because their fixture was postponed earlier in the season. For fantasy football territory, this highlights two opportunities to rack up points compared to other teams’ one chance.

Now, the trouble here is that these two teams are not performing very well. But, as Ellie Gouldings sings, “anything can happen”, and so I have got one defender from each of Sunderland and Reading into my team, because I think there’s a higher chance of the teams keeping a clean sheet in at least one of their games (dream scenario is keeping clean sheets in both).

My chosen punt would be Reading’s Nicky Shorey, priced very cheaply at 4.1m, and on corners and free kicks which gives him assist and even goal potential, on top of the aforementioned clean sheet possibilities. 3 points over two games, no clean sheets (lose)

Sunderland’s Carlos Cuellar is not a bad option for the Black Cats (I’ve got him), as he’s already scored this season so is capable of finding the back of the net. 11 points over two games, including clean sheet, bonus point and assist in victory over Reading (win)

Michu vs Santi Cazorla? I’ve got to go with Michu… he’s a classified midfielder who often plays as a lone striker, he’s proved with his goals against Arsenal that he can score regardless of tough fixtures, and he’s almost £2m cheaper than Cazorla (who, despite being Arsenal’s best and most creative player, all too often “assists the assist” and there’s no points for that). Michu scored two goals against Norwich, Cazorla got one assist vs West Brom (win)

14 December: Sam 4 - 1 Football

Okay, from a fantasy football perspective again, Chelsea don’t have a fixture because they’re playing in the World Club Championship in Japan, which means their prospective opponents Southampton also won’t be playing in the Premier League this weekend. So it’s worth making sure that you’ve got a team of at least 11 eligible players, and ideally at least one or two players on your bench who are guaranteed starts by their club as well – if you haven’t, then it would be wise to use your transfer this week in this way.

In terms of Robert Snodgrass, he’s a good player and has the capability to score goals, BUT when thinking about transfers, you need to look further than the next game – although Norwich play Wigan next and there’s potential for goals in that one, they then play West Brom who are 6^th, Chelsea who are 3^rd and City who are 2^nd… followed by games away to West Ham, home to Newcastle, away to Liverpool and home to Tottenham. For my money, that’s a fixture list from hell, with little or no hope of returns, and therefore Norwich (and Snodgrass) are best well avoided for the foreseeable. Snodgrass didn't score or assist and returned only three points (win)

Elsewhere, there should be convincing victories from the likes of Man Utd, Liverpool, Man City, even Arsenal… Man U won 3-1 (Win), Liverpool lost 3-1 (lose), City won 3-1 (win), Arsenal won 5-2 (win)

And finally, the most recent offering:

Okay, the first thing is a reminder that there are four games being played in a ten-day period over Christmas, which means some players are liable to rest and rotation. So again, it's important to stress the need for a squad of fully fit players who are established members of their team's starting line-up, and aren't injured or suspended.

With that in mind, similar to last week's blank fixture for Chelsea and Southampton, both Arsenal and West Ham will not be playing on Boxing Day due to the tube strike - so anyone with a number of their players in their squads will want to rectify this after Saturday's matches vs Wigan and Everton, respectively.

Talking of Everton, their main player Marouane Fellaini has been suspended for the next three matches - so ship him out immediately, if you haven't done so already.

Because of the four games in ten days, the 'gameweeks' are substantially shorter than usual, down to around three days or thereabouts. So there's no point in taking a four-point hit for more than one transfer in a gameweek over this period, as you can surely wait a day or two to make your transfer.

I'll finish with a tip: Liverpool have got four decent fixtures coming up, against Fulham, Stoke, QPR and Sunderland. They should get some clean sheets out of that, and the manager's talked about giving Raheem Sterling a rest soon - he plays just off the striker, and the Liverpool defender Jose Enrique has been pushed up the field in that position previously, and done well there. So, coupled with the potential for clean sheets as he's classified as a defender, and potential goal threat from a forward position, he looks a good bet to get some big scored over the next four games...